Here is an abbreviated version of a letter I sent to the school board members. I can't paste the graph into this message, but I will include an excell spread sheet as an attachment if anyone wants to see the numbers. The relationship is remarkably clear.
John
Thank you for sponsoring the voter survey. It is a great source of information. I thought the presentation was very professional and the question and answer session was very informed.
I think there is a very clear message in the survey results. While it is easy to say we need more or less, I think you get the clearest answer when you ask, "How much are you willing to spend?" I took the results of the questions regarding different sizes of bond issues and plotted them up. They look like this:
(** see the attached spreadsheet, there is a very strong and linear relationship between the size of the bond and how much people will pay. The willingness to pay is about twice as high for new classes and renovation than for either a gym or an auditorium)
The solid points are for either renovation, new classrooms or a new school. The open points are for either a gym or auditorium. I wish I could get such clear results in my own research. In the terms used by the survey folks, the size of the bond issue for renovations and additions explains 99% (basically all) of the variation in voter support. Statistically, this means that only the size of the bond matters (every $1 million added to the bond convinces an additional 2.88% of the electorate to vote against). The three open points for the gym or auditorium are way below the other line, showing that support for these two parts of the project is also way below that for renovations and classroom additions.
I supported and voted for both bond issues last time, and would do so again (a zealot for sure). However, I would urge you to consider something in the $4-5 million range for the next round. It would be nice to think that we could pass one large bond and be done with it, but pragmatically I don't think any bond that size will ever pass. The district will no doubt be considering new bond issues every year, even if that is a very inefficient way to proceed. I only hope that we can solve at least part of the high school problem before demand for a new elementary school becomes overwhelming.
Thank you very much for your efforts and all of your time. As a true zealot, I will vote for whatever you decide to put on the ballot.
Sincerely,
John D. Aber
Commons
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Last update on 29-Mar-99 at 9:31 PM.
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